9 or progresses slightly for the second 1

It is the disappointment prevailing yesterday in the markets after the publication of the quarterly results of Credit Agricole SA. Underachievement of most of the Poles, pressure on margins of interest in retail banking and consumer credit, deceleration began on the French market in strong revenue growth increases costs in asset management and questions about the fate of the Nextra Italian... Elements put forward yesterday by analysts for the progression of 15 of the net banking product, to 3.8 billion euros, and 12.4 of net income, to 1.14 billion euros, with reserve and which made diving title to 4.03, to EUR 32.90 Fellowship.

Two poles in particular raise questions this quarter. The Bank retail France, first. Both regional caisses that LCL see their banking net proceeds increase of less than 3 (taken from CEL - PEL supplies included). It is significantly less than the Société Générale ( 7.3) and BNP Paribas ( 11.2). And their contribution to the net result of the group moves to the first ( 1.9) or progresses slightly for the second ( 1).

Since early 2006, both networks conquer of new customers ( 168.000 in the caisses, an astounding 62 for LCL), good growth of the stock of credits over a year (respectively 13 and 16.5) as commissions customer ( 11 and 5.5). So, the interest margin is under pressure in the boxes in the third quarter ( 0.3 excluding the effects PEL - CEL), commissions fall in LCL ( 2.4) and the cost of risk is progressing ( 31 in the crates, doubly LCL).

Gilles de Margerie, CFO of Credit Agricole SA, is reassuring: it does not slow probably sustainable growth of revenues on the French market, linked to "the escalation of rates, the competitive environment and a very controlled tariff policy", it "is not coming from the cost of risk degradation" and point good control of the charges in force in the Bank of proximity.

Asset management: costs on the rise

In the asset management centre, on the other hand, expenditure increased very quickly in the third quarter ( 15.4), faster than the GDP, limiting to 8.3 growth in net income (332 million). This inflation of the loads is linked to changes in the taxation and the call to consultants for life insurance information systems; It is an exceptional character, according to Gilles de Margerie, "which has no concern on the control of the cost base" of this pole.

His main question relates to the future of CAAM in Italy. The head of Casa indicated yesterday that discussions with Banca Intesa for Nextra will begin in January and that their outcome remains open. However, the output of the Credit Agricole of Nextra seems the most likely which would significantly reduce the size of CAAM in Europe... It is true that the international is now a key driver of growth for Credit Agricole SA. This pole net income increased by 27.8 in the third quarter, to 147 million. Until then no presents from France, Casa has been enriched in one year of four new subsidiaries: Meridian Bank Serbia, EAB in Egypt, Emporiki in Greece and Index Bank in Ukraine. Consolidated to 72 on half of the quarter, Emporiki has contributed to the GDP to the tune of EUR 110 million. And other changes in perimeter will occur with the reduction of the participation of Intesa (349 million euro, 20 over nine months), at the same time at the entrance of the new Italian network of agencies under the oriflamme Cariparma. Not to mention the possible acquisition of a Turkish Bank.

Good quarter for Calyon

The specialized financial services pole, which will incorporate Fidis next year, also already benefits from its international development. Its stock rose by 12.6 over a year, including from the countries of southern Europe ( 37), and its net income has increased by more than three to 131 million euros.

Another pole still draws in this quarter, despite a less enabling environment, the Bank financing and investment. The net result progresses from 16 to EUR 381 million, with growth of 12.3 of its income, contained charges ( 11.4) and at a cost of negligible risk. In funding, Calyon has even benefited from a strong commercial dynamic on the structured finance ( 24 of net income), while market and investment activities have resisted ( 1) rate derivatives, securitization and structured credit.